DATA AND AI ARE CHANGING THE WAY ORGANIZATIONS THINK, DECIDE, AND ORGANIZE. IT’S TIME HUMANITIES, MANAGEMENT AND SOCIAL SCIENCES GET INVOLVED.
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EVENTS

RESEARCH

A DYNAMIC AND PROBABILISTIC ORIENTEERING PROBLEM

[ARTICLE] This paper addresses an online orienteering problem with stochastic service requests, formulating it as a Markov Decision Process to maximize expected profit through real-time acceptance/rejection decisions, and proposes several heuristic approaches.

by Claudia Archetti (ESSEC Business School), Enrico Angelelli, Carlo Filippi, Michele Vindigni

We consider an online version of the orienteering problem, where stochastic service requests arise during a first time interval from customers located on the nodes of a graph. Every request must be accepted/rejected in real time. Later, a vehicle must visit the accepted customers during a second time interval. Each accepted request implies a prize, depending on the customer, and a service cost, depending on the routing decisions. Moreover, an accepted request implies a reduction of the routing time available for possible future requests. Each acceptance/rejection decision is made to maximize the expected profit, i.e., the difference between expected prices and expected service costs.

We formulate the problem as a Markov Decision Process and derive analytical expressions for the transition probabilities and the optimal policy. Since an exact policy computation is intractable, we design and test several heuristic approaches, including static approximation, simple greedy (non-anticipatory) methods, Sample Average Approximation (SAA) of the objective function using Monte Carlo sampling of future events. We perform extensive computational tests on the proposed algorithms and discuss the pros and cons of the different methods.

[Please read the research paper here]

Research list
MULTIVARIATE VOLATILITY FORECASTS FOR STOCK MARKET INDICES

MULTIVARIATE VOLATILITY FORECASTS FOR STOCK MARKET INDICES

[ARTICLE] This study forecasts realized variance for major international stock market indices, incorporating jump, continuous, and option-implied variance components, using ...
DYNAMICS OF VARIANCE RISK PREMIA: A NEW MODEL FOR DISENTANGLING THE PRICE OF RISK

DYNAMICS OF VARIANCE RISK PREMIA: A NEW MODEL FOR DISENTANGLING THE PRICE OF RISK

[ARTICLE] This paper presents a dynamic model for the variance risk premium that separates the continuous component from jump impacts, ...
MINIMUM COST NETWORK DESIGN IN STRATEGIC ALLIANCES

MINIMUM COST NETWORK DESIGN IN STRATEGIC ALLIANCES

[ARTICLE] This paper investigates the impact of transaction costs on the viability of strategic alliances in service network design, highlighting ...
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF BUBBLES AND FLASH CRASHES

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF BUBBLES AND FLASH CRASHES

[ARTICLE] This paper proposes a near explosive random coefficient autoregressive model (NERC) to predict probabilities of bubbles and crashes in ...
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