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EVENTS

RESEARCH

FAST FILTERING WITH LARGE OPTION PANELS: IMPLICATIONS FOR ASSET PRICING

[ARTICLE] This study explores a new method (particle MCMC) for estimating complex option pricing models that involve hidden factors (latent state variables). They show this method leads to different risk measure estimates compared to previous methods, and that the specific options chosen can significantly impact the results.

by Jeroen Rombouts (ESSEC Business School), Yuguo Liu, Kris Jacobs, Arnaud Dufays

The cross-section of options holds great promise for identifying return distributions and risk premia, but estimating dynamic option valuation models with latent state variables is challenging when using large option panels. We propose a particle MCMC framework with a novel filtering approach and illustrate our method by estimating workhorse index option pricing models. Estimates of the variance risk premium, variance mean reversion, and higher moments differ from the literature. We show that these differences are due to the composition of the option sample. Restrictions on the option sample's maturity dimension have the strongest impact on parameter inference and option fit in these models.

[Please read the research paper here]

Research list
MULTIVARIATE VOLATILITY FORECASTS FOR STOCK MARKET INDICES

MULTIVARIATE VOLATILITY FORECASTS FOR STOCK MARKET INDICES

[ARTICLE] This study forecasts realized variance for major international stock market indices, incorporating jump, continuous, and option-implied variance components, using ...
DYNAMICS OF VARIANCE RISK PREMIA: A NEW MODEL FOR DISENTANGLING THE PRICE OF RISK

DYNAMICS OF VARIANCE RISK PREMIA: A NEW MODEL FOR DISENTANGLING THE PRICE OF RISK

[ARTICLE] This paper presents a dynamic model for the variance risk premium that separates the continuous component from jump impacts, ...
MINIMUM COST NETWORK DESIGN IN STRATEGIC ALLIANCES

MINIMUM COST NETWORK DESIGN IN STRATEGIC ALLIANCES

[ARTICLE] This paper investigates the impact of transaction costs on the viability of strategic alliances in service network design, highlighting ...
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF BUBBLES AND FLASH CRASHES

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF BUBBLES AND FLASH CRASHES

[ARTICLE] This paper proposes a near explosive random coefficient autoregressive model (NERC) to predict probabilities of bubbles and crashes in ...
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