DATA AND AI ARE CHANGING THE WAY ORGANIZATIONS THINK, DECIDE, AND ORGANIZE. IT’S TIME HUMANITIES, MANAGEMENT AND SOCIAL SCIENCES GET INVOLVED.
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EVENTS

RESEARCH

BUILDING UP CYBER RESILIENCE BY BETTER GRASPING CYBER RISK VIA A NEW ALGORITHM FOR MODELLING HEAVY-TAILED DATA

[ARTICLE] The authors analyze cyber-attack data using a new algorithm for heavy-tailed data. This method allows researchers to accurately assess risks, compare them to existing models, and potentially classify attacks based on their severity.

by Marie Kratz (ESSEC Business School), Nehla Debbabi, Michel Dacorogna

Cyber security and resilience are major challenges in our modern economies; this is why they are top priorities on the agenda of governments, security and defense forces, management of companies and organizations. Hence, the need of a deep understanding of cyber risks to improve resilience. We propose here an analysis of the database of the cyber complaints filed at the Gendarmerie Nationale. We perform this analysis with a new algorithm developed for non-negative asymmetric heavy-tailed data, which could become a handy tool for applied fields, including operations research. This method gives a good estimation of the full distribution including the tail. Our study confirms the finiteness of the loss expectation, necessary condition for insurability. Finally, we draw the consequences of this model for risk management, compare its results to other standard EVT models, and lay the ground for a classification of attacks based on the fatness of the tail.

[Please read the research paper here]

Research list
MULTIVARIATE VOLATILITY FORECASTS FOR STOCK MARKET INDICES

MULTIVARIATE VOLATILITY FORECASTS FOR STOCK MARKET INDICES

[ARTICLE] This study forecasts realized variance for major international stock market indices, incorporating jump, continuous, and option-implied variance components, using ...
DYNAMICS OF VARIANCE RISK PREMIA: A NEW MODEL FOR DISENTANGLING THE PRICE OF RISK

DYNAMICS OF VARIANCE RISK PREMIA: A NEW MODEL FOR DISENTANGLING THE PRICE OF RISK

[ARTICLE] This paper presents a dynamic model for the variance risk premium that separates the continuous component from jump impacts, ...
MINIMUM COST NETWORK DESIGN IN STRATEGIC ALLIANCES

MINIMUM COST NETWORK DESIGN IN STRATEGIC ALLIANCES

[ARTICLE] This paper investigates the impact of transaction costs on the viability of strategic alliances in service network design, highlighting ...
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF BUBBLES AND FLASH CRASHES

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF BUBBLES AND FLASH CRASHES

[ARTICLE] This paper proposes a near explosive random coefficient autoregressive model (NERC) to predict probabilities of bubbles and crashes in ...
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