DATA AND AI ARE CHANGING THE WAY ORGANIZATIONS THINK, DECIDE, AND ORGANIZE. IT’S TIME HUMANITIES, MANAGEMENT AND SOCIAL SCIENCES GET INVOLVED.
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EVENTS

RESEARCH

DATA-CLONING SMC2: A GLOBAL OPTIMIZER FOR MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF LATENT VARIABLE MODELS

[ARTICLE] This paper proposes a data-cloning SMC2 algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of models with latent variables, offering broad applicability and massive parallelizability.

by Andras Fulop (ESSEC Business School), Jin-Chuan Duan, Yu-Wei Hsieh

A data-cloning SMC2 algorithm is proposed as a general-purpose, global optimization routine for the maximum likelihood estimation of models with latent variables. In the SMC2 phase, the method first marginalizes out the latent variable(s) by applying one layer of SMC at a fixed parameter value and then searches for the optimal parameters through another layer of SMC. The data-cloning phase is deployed to ensure global convergence by dampening multi-modality and to reduce the Monte Carlo error associated with SMC. This new method has broad applicability and is massively parallelizable through leveraging modern multi-core CPU or GPU computing.

[Please read the research paper here]

Research list
MULTIVARIATE VOLATILITY FORECASTS FOR STOCK MARKET INDICES

MULTIVARIATE VOLATILITY FORECASTS FOR STOCK MARKET INDICES

[ARTICLE] This study forecasts realized variance for major international stock market indices, incorporating jump, continuous, and option-implied variance components, using ...
DYNAMICS OF VARIANCE RISK PREMIA: A NEW MODEL FOR DISENTANGLING THE PRICE OF RISK

DYNAMICS OF VARIANCE RISK PREMIA: A NEW MODEL FOR DISENTANGLING THE PRICE OF RISK

[ARTICLE] This paper presents a dynamic model for the variance risk premium that separates the continuous component from jump impacts, ...
MINIMUM COST NETWORK DESIGN IN STRATEGIC ALLIANCES

MINIMUM COST NETWORK DESIGN IN STRATEGIC ALLIANCES

[ARTICLE] This paper investigates the impact of transaction costs on the viability of strategic alliances in service network design, highlighting ...
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF BUBBLES AND FLASH CRASHES

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF BUBBLES AND FLASH CRASHES

[ARTICLE] This paper proposes a near explosive random coefficient autoregressive model (NERC) to predict probabilities of bubbles and crashes in ...
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