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EVENTS

RESEARCH

SPARSE CHANGE‐POINT VAR MODELS

[ARTICLE] This paper introduces the Sparse CP-VAR model to address the parameter proliferation in Change-point VAR models.

by Arnaud Dufays, Jeroen V.K. Rombouts (ESSEC Business School), Zhuo Li, Yong Song

Change-point (CP) VAR models face a dimensionality curse due to the proliferation of parameters that arises when new breaks are detected. We introduce the Sparse CP-VAR model which determines which parameters truly vary when a break is detected. By doing so, the number of new parameters to be estimated at each regime is drastically reduced and the break dynamics becomes easier to be interpreted. The Sparse CP-VAR model disentangles the dynamics of the mean parameters and the covariance matrix. The former uses CP dynamics with shrinkage prior distributions, while the latter is driven by an infinite hidden Markov framework. An extensive simulation study is carried out to compare our approach with existing ones. We provide applications to financial and macroeconomic systems.

[Please read the research paper here]

Research list
MULTIVARIATE VOLATILITY FORECASTS FOR STOCK MARKET INDICES

MULTIVARIATE VOLATILITY FORECASTS FOR STOCK MARKET INDICES

[ARTICLE] This study forecasts realized variance for major international stock market indices, incorporating jump, continuous, and option-implied variance components, using ...
DYNAMICS OF VARIANCE RISK PREMIA: A NEW MODEL FOR DISENTANGLING THE PRICE OF RISK

DYNAMICS OF VARIANCE RISK PREMIA: A NEW MODEL FOR DISENTANGLING THE PRICE OF RISK

[ARTICLE] This paper presents a dynamic model for the variance risk premium that separates the continuous component from jump impacts, ...
MINIMUM COST NETWORK DESIGN IN STRATEGIC ALLIANCES

MINIMUM COST NETWORK DESIGN IN STRATEGIC ALLIANCES

[ARTICLE] This paper investigates the impact of transaction costs on the viability of strategic alliances in service network design, highlighting ...
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF BUBBLES AND FLASH CRASHES

PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING OF BUBBLES AND FLASH CRASHES

[ARTICLE] This paper proposes a near explosive random coefficient autoregressive model (NERC) to predict probabilities of bubbles and crashes in ...
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